The US/Iranian war is now going into its ninth day; however, the war is rapidly expanding into multiple locations throughout the Middle East. Many cities have been placed into a ‘state of emergency’ and continue to launch missiles towards one another, while at the same time pursuing a political solution appears nearly impossible.
In particular, large plumes of black smoke filled up the skyline over Tehran following the recent bombardment of several oil storage facilities. Furthermore, many city residents throughout the Gulf region were issued ongoing emergency alerts related to the potential for airborne attack.
Therefore, for many people, the conflicts between the USA and Iran are no longer occurring as a result of their being separated through distance; however, these conflicts will now be taking place within or over their homes. The conflict began as a result of a joint US and Israeli attack on Iran last month; however, the rate at which this conflict has spread throughout the region has been astonishingly rapid.
Iran Moves Towards a New Supreme Leader
Iran is undergoing significant political change. Reports indicate that the Clerical Council that elects Iran’s Supreme Leader has selected a new Supreme Leader to succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
While there was no formal announcement of the selection yet, the strong likelihood is that it will be Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the Ayatollah.
This news has captured the attention of Washington and Tel Aviv. Israeli officials have warned that if the war continues, any potential new Supreme Leader would be a military target so long as hostilities continue.
This political development could impact the next phase of the war.
Missiles and Drones Across the Gulf
On Sunday, warlike activities increased across the globe. The United Arab Emirates reported that Iran launched 16 ballistic missiles and more than 100 unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones (UAV); while the UAE Defence Ministry said all of the UAVs were intercepted, with one downed missile landing in the ocean, there were many reported attempts to land UAVs inside the UAE.
Dubai and Abu Dhabi were put on emergency watch status. Authorities warned residents to remain vigilant while the air defence system remained operational.
Additional explosions occurred in Tel Aviv as Iranian leadership vowed to increase attacks against U.S. and Israeli military targets.
Strikes Spread Across the Region
Israel has begun expanding its military campaign outside of Iran. Air strikes have been conducted in the southern region of Lebanon, as well as some strikes on buildings in Beirut. Lebanese officials reported that four individuals were killed during a bombing of a hotel building.
Israel said that their operations targeted members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard who hold command positions.
Meanwhile, more than 100 Iranian citizens were evacuated from Beirut using a Russian plane shortly after Lebanon banned anything associated with Iran and its Revolutionary Guards.
Energy Markets Feel the Shock
The conflict is causing shocks to global energy markets. Oil and gas shipments through the Gulf have been disrupted. The Strait of Hormuz, a major global shipping route, is closed. Kuwait has begun reducing output; meanwhile, Iraq’s exports have declined sharply. Energy experts advise that long-term disruptions could increase global prices.
Rising Human Cost
There is an ongoing death toll across all areas from the war. Iran has reported that over 1200 people have died since the beginning of the war on February 28. Lebanon has reported over 300 deaths. Israel has also reported a number of casualties, though fewer than in Iran or Lebanon.
At this point, there are no signs that the violence will end. Each attack only increases the level of uncertainty for countries in the already strained region.
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