IMD Issues Alert for Kerala: The Early Arrival of Monsoons
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) noted that the southwest monsoon is expected to set over Kerala within four to five days, which would be early in comparison to the average start date of June 1. This prediction, given on May 20, 2025, indicates that the monsoon might reach Kerala earlier than the new predicted date of May 27, which would make it the earliest onset since 2009, when the monsoon set in on May 23. The explanation for the early arrival is due to the atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the South Arabian Sea as well as the South Arabian Sea and adjoining areas.
Movement of the monsoon will occur throughout the Indian subcontinent.
In anticipation of the commencement in Kerala, the southwest monsoon is likely to expand more into the South Arabian Sea, Maldives, Comorin region, Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu, and further into the South and Central Bay of Bengal as well as Northeast India. The expectation is that with the commencement in Kerala, the monsoon will progress throughout the country by mid-July to ensure the required rains to the farmlands and cities.
Above-Normal Rainfall Forecast for the Year 2025
The monsoon season this year, IMD projects, will have an overflowing amount of rain and will most likely have even more rainfall than in previous years. It has been noted the department is more optimistic this year and is estimating rainfall will reach 105% of the long-period average of 87 cm. With the prediction of these figures, it is quite optimistic for the Indian agri-based economy in monsoon-dependent regions.
Weather Dynamics and Rain-Inducing Synoptic Systems
The meteorologist community has also noted that the cyclonic circulation will eventually shift to the upper air in the east-central descent of the Arabian Sea and also near the coast of Karnataka, which is expected to happen May 21. This system of the cyclone has the power to evolve over a span of time into a low-pressure area between the 23rd of May and the 22nd of May. If it will strengthen, cyclonic activity over the coastal states of Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Kerala, and also Lakshadweep promises to unleash heavier rains. This kind of system pushes the monsoon further, which creates stronger chances of severe rainfall in those areas.
Historical Context: Variability in Onset Dates
In recent years, the onset date of the southwest monsoon over Kerala has shown considerable variability. There has been no onset prior to May 30 for the monsoon Keralization, which normally starts on June 1. However, 2024 and 2023 saw the monsoon arriving on May 30, while in 2021 it arrived on May 29. The May 29 arrival in 2021, along with hints of an expected May 2025 arrival, suggests dynamic shifts in India’s climate. In 2025, India could set further benchmarks influenced by rapidly changing climate trends across the globe.
Implications for Agriculture and Water Management
A forecast indicating early monsoons is important from an agricultural point of view. Along with timely sowing of kharif crops, it helps in kharif crop reservoir replenishment as well as groundwater levels throughout the country. There is optimism among farmers stemming from the Indian Meteorological Department’s positive monsoon predictions, especially among those expecting higher farmer-driven demand. However, along with the excitement, there is preparedness among authorities for other multitudes of intense rainfall delta issues like flooding, waterlogging, and urban submerging.
Conclusion: Kerala Awaits the Onset of the Monsoons
From the latest updates of IMD, it is clear that Kerala, along with the rest of the country, is getting ready to face the consequences of an early and vigorous monsoon period. The southwest monsoon will be keen to shower its bounties on Kerala, as much attention will be focused in the coming weeks on what course the monsoon will take and how it will impact the region. The above-expected rainfall increases along with pre planned initiatives highlight well the need of Kerala’s monsoon for India’s ecosystem and economy.
