The impacts of the climate crisis are no longer limited to rising sea levels or melting ice caps but are increasingly affecting how we move throughout each day.

According to a recent study published in The Lancet Global Health, millions could be forced into physical inactivity as temperatures rise across the globe by the year 2050. The researchers predict that this could result in as many as 700,000 additional premature deaths per year and billions of dollars in lost productivity.

Heat Is Changing Human Behaviour

The rising temperature is putting a lot of strain on the human body. Performing any type of exercise is much more difficult, and being active outdoors seems dangerous. In many parts of the world (particularly tropical regions), performing even a basic activity may not be safe when the sun is at its worst.

To determine how the possible consequences of warming might change behaviour in the future, researchers analysed data from 156 countries over the period of 2000-2022. Their findings indicate a subtle but major change in motion – as the world becomes hotter, people will move less.

According to the results of the study, the global rate of inactivity would be expected to increase by 1.5 percentage points for each month’s increase in the number of months with mean temperatures above 27.8 degrees Celsius. In comparison to countries with low and middle incomes, the change will be even greater.

A Silent Health Crisis

The problem of insufficient physical activity is at epidemic levels across the world today. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), about 33% of all adults do not engage in enough physical activity to meet its recommendations regarding physical activity levels. The WHO recommends that adults should engage in at least 150 minutes of moderate physical activity or 75 minutes of vigorous physical activity on a weekly basis.

However, if higher temperatures continue to restrict movement, these recommended amounts of physical activity may continue to be unrealistic for the majority of people. Researchers suggest that the impact of climate change on global efforts to decrease the amount of time spent in a sedentary state could lead to a 15 per cent higher level of physical inactivity than is projected for the year 2030.

The potential health consequences of increased physical inactivity are significant. A sedentary lifestyle increases one’s risk for developing heart disease, diabetes, and various other chronic illnesses. Researchers project that an increased level of physical inactivity could result in several hundred thousand additional deaths annually.

India and the Global South at Risk

The distribution of the burden will not be equal. The greatest risk of physical inactivity due to heat lies with those countries in the warmer regions of our planet. As an example, India could have a projected death toll from inactivity related to heat as high as 10.62 per 100,000 by the year 2050, depending on how greenhouse gas emissions change over time. Many parts of the Global South (Southern Hemisphere) have limited infrastructure and access to cooling options; therefore, the threat posed by climate change is greater than in other areas of the world.

An alternative study indicates that for many areas in the tropics and subtropics, levels of activity that could be considered safe in terms of heat and humidity will significantly diminish to essentially sitting or lying down during the hottest part of the day. This clearly illustrates what daily life will look like in a world that has become hot!

Economic Costs Mount

Going beyond the health aspects, a reduced level of physical activity can negatively impact one’s ability to be productive as well. When someone is exposed to excess amounts of extreme heat, they may have difficulty maintaining their level of performance during work hours. According to this study, the productivity loss is estimated to be between $2.4 billion and $3.68 billion each year until 2050. This productivity loss may be felt most by poorer countries as a result of outdoor labour being such a key component of many developing countries’ economies.

What Can Be Done

Research regarding the findings, however, has produced some sense of optimism. Findings indicate that heat-related harm may be minimised through targeted action, such as by including heat awareness within public health policies and developing shaded walking and cycling routes throughout communities, as well as providing subsidised access to cooled fitness facilities.

In addition to providing safeguards against the harmful effects of heat on workers, there is also a need for stronger workplace protections through the establishment of a defined heat safety standard so as to ensure worker safety while maintaining their level of productivity.

Also Read: Health